(Published in the online version of the People`s Daily (China), May 2010; on the website of the Centre for Social-Conservative Politics, July 2010 in German)
The development of geopolitical processes at least of the last decade demonstrates the fact that CA has become one of the key Eurasian regions, a situation in which it has a major impact on the overall climate of the continental and global security.
The influence of Central Asian is felt on several fronts, primarily, it concerns the sphere of combating international terrorism and supply of oil and natural gas.
Meanwhile, the growing importance of Central Asian factor in continental and global scale carries certain risks - increasingly becoming an integral part of the global system of security and the economy, the region, in turn, becomes sensitive to the effects of the multiple factors and processes that traditionally determine the course of global political, economic, cultural and ideological development.
This creates some difficulties for Central Asian countries in formation and consecutive realization of their long-term national strategies. The difficulty lies in the fact that every year with the growth of the region`s geopolitical role, its states are increasingly involved in the space of complex political, diplomatic, financial and economic processes, which, in its turn, requires a constant evolution of quality and flexibility of strategies to protect national interests.
In fact, taking into consideration the full range of existing threats and challenges, Central Asia at this stage is constantly forced to decide for itself the key question. On the one hand, continue strengthening its position as an outpost of international stability and an integral part of the world economy and, on the other hand, minimize the impact of negative factors that could lead to a decrease the level of security in Central Asia.
Read moreThe decision by the president Barack Obama to send up to 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan clearly confirms the fact that the Afghan dilemma comes to the fore in world politics.
Its global status is due not only to the fact that the resurgent activity of Taliban and Al-Qaeda once again makes Afghanistan become a zone with high destabilizing potential, but also the fact that the Afghan conflict directly affects the vital interests of virtually all major global centers of power.
This in turn creates a fairly unique situation where often divergent interests of leading global and regional factors are beginning to converge at a common point – the need for joint action to accelerate the blockade of unwanted developments in Afghanistan and work out new measures of stabilization and recovery of this country.
Opinion on the necessity for immediate consolidation of international efforts around Afghanistan is fully shared by the countries of Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, which has quite a long southern border, and plays an important role in maintaining stability and economic development of the northern Afghan provinces. For Uzbekistan, it is important from the standpoint of regional and global security to see cooperation, not competition of leading forces in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Uzbek think-tank experts believe that for the solution of Afghan problem and the annihilation of destabilizing processes influence, diverging from it in waves throughout the world, it is appropriate for all interested parties to approach it in the first place with a pragmatic rational position.
Read more(Published in the magazine "Contemporary International Relations" (in English), Vol.19 No.6, November-December 2009; magazine "Xiandai Guoji Guanxi" (Contemporary International Relations) (in Chinese), August 8, 2009)
The «soft power» concept was initially defined on scientific and theoretical levels by the American political scientist, Harvard University professor Joseph Nye on the base of the United States foreign policy to maintain its positive image in the world and to promote the best features of American culture and its social achievements. The concept has demonstrated its effectiveness in theoretical and practical terms that initiated broad discussions around this topic, and also gave impetus to the natural process of transformation of original, a classic to this moment understanding of «soft power».
Today the strategy of «soft power» is increasingly being implemented not only in foreign but also internal policy. In the present world there are not only countries with global geopolitical interests, but also states seeking to resolve issues at local level, primarily at the level of domestic national space. For many states, especially those recently embarked on the path of independent development, it is necessary to create a consolidated society, fully realizing its national interests, cultural, historical and mental commonality. Such consolidated society is a fundamental platform relying on which it is possible to deal with further tasks of economic, intellectual and cultural development. The strategy of «soft power» in this context should create consolidating idea, a kind of axial factor of development.
An indicator of the popularity and recognition of viability of the «soft power» theory is its use in commercial management. Apologists of application of this theory in business increasingly often suggest that management should be built not only on traditional idea about it as from a position of «hard power», but also on the basis of «soft power» strategy. It will allow in present information world to make company’s politics more flexible and attractive to partners and customers.
Thus it becomes apparent that the «soft power», originally being practical and theoretical concept in the space of geopolitics, over the years is under increasing transformation on spreading to other areas and disciplines. It is appropriate mention here an analogy with psychology, which, being born as a science about cognition of a psyche in terms of medicine, over the years has become applicable in other fields of human being.
Read morePublished in the magazine "Russia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe" (November 6, 2009), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The crisis, of course, remains the number one problem of global proportions, which has pushed to second place, even severe problems, such as events in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This urgency is due not only to the fact that under the threat are those global financial and economic models that have been emerged after World War II and intellectual schools which developed and promoted this model, but also to the fact that under challenge have become established political structure, security system, as well as the usual way of life of people in many countries.
The world financial crisis risks becoming a versatile catalyst that can trigger a chain of reaction in many spheres of global society. However, so far still there is no unified opinion as to whether the real crisis may profoundly affect the global economy and lead to drastic reformatting, or it is just temporary problems, despite its severity, not challenging the current economic, political and social model, lobbying by western thought.
Today, the number of expert opinions and evaluations, circulating in the world media, is more than thousands, and in this context, it is important for at least some clarification of the situation to identify major issues around which key intellectual trends develop.
At first, most acute controversy exists around the problem of the nature of the current crisis. Majority of the economists, especially in the West, is of the opinion that the crisis is a common occurrence in the cyclical fluctuations in economic growth.
Proponents of the theory of business cycles suggest that in today's crisis is not unusual, because economic activity has traditionally developed on undulating curve, where the phase of recovery over time are replaced by the phases of recession and depression, which then give rise to further growth. Such a cycle develops as a spiral, stimulating the economy to the stage for further growth.
In turn, supporters of cyclical point of view at the crisis fall into two groups.
Read moreRole and place of Uzbekistan in global energy processes
(Published in Oil&Gas Vertical Journal, May 2007)
Uzbekistan is already playing a visible role in maintaining stability on the international energy market. Considering the current situation on the global market, Uzbekistan with its growing gas production will be playing an increasingly important role.
Due to the increasing world energy demand, the competition is growing among major importers for access to hydrocarbon fields and control over oil and gas transportation routes. The attempt of hydrocarbon supplying countries to align their respective national energy policies is a kind of response to that trend.
Taking consistent actions to raise natural gas production and exports Uzbekistan is interested in stable and predictable energy markets. This could be achieved through a constructive interaction of all interested parties. The SCO Energy Club is a good venue for such interaction.
Uzbekistan is playing an important role in the regional and global energy system, especially in its gas segment. Over the last several years, natural gas production in Uzbekistan has been together with increasing large additions to the country`s natural gas resource base. This progress is the result of close attention on the part of the Uzbek government to the energy industry and protection of foreign investments. As a result of a well-substantiated government policy the energy sector has become more attractive to foreign investors who show increasingly high interest in energy business opportunities in Uzbekistan.
Russian and Asian companies are most active on the Uzbek investment market. To date, Russian companies have invested about $2.5 billion in Uzbekistan`s fuel and energy industry. Specifically, Gazprom and LUKOIL concluded agreements with Uzbekistan for the development of promising gas areas. LUKOIL is executing the Shady-Kandym-Hauzak project with gas reserves estimated at 330bcm worth $1 billion.
In January 2006, Gazprom signed two agreements with Uzbekneftegaz establishing principles for geological exploration of seven investment blocks in the Ustyurt region and the key provisions of the production sharing agreement (PSA) for several fields in the country`s western regions. Gazprom is planning to invest in its Uzbek exploration and field development projects over $610M from 2007 to 2011. The Russian Company is already involved in the additional development project in the Shakhpakhty field. In 2004, gas production in the field amounted to 200 million cubic meters; in 2005, about 500 million cubic meters. By the end of 2006, gas production in that field was close to 1 bcm.
Read moreFrom the speech at the conference Formation of Modern Information Space: Role of Informational Technologies, Structural Attitude and Regional Specifics in Organizing the Media Space
(Tashkent, June 20, 2006)
Humanity today follows the path of information and communication technologies, while chaotically involving more and more people of various societies into this process. Many experts call this phenomenon a “puzzle of the 21st century”.
UNESCO suggests its own methodology for finding solutions to many disputed issues and provisions of this dilemma. UNESCO adheres to the position of advancing the conception of “knowledge societies” rather than “global information society”. Simple expansion of mass media market neither will make it more rational or manageable nor will decrease the current tension among the counteragents. Therefore indeed, UNESCO designed four principles abiding by which it is desirable for all those, who are employed in the sphere of information policy, management and market.
We hold to the view that the suggestion on the given methodology of establishing a media space and market for media services are well-timed and rational, especially, for the Central Asian region.
Global market segment, which is based on the services now provided by mass media, at the start of the 21st century is not only more extensive and dynamically changing, but also the most complex, and this is not only in technical terms.
Complexity emerges in the making of product and yet more in its dissemination, since oftentimes we don`t know of its true demand, which depends on spiritual, educational, moral, legal and finally on economic level of consumption of an individual person or social group of people, country, and the region, where there is a certain tradition of ideological understanding of the essence of events and phenomena.
Mass media market is characterized, firstly, by superficially visible parameters, and, secondly, by abyssal processes on the basis of which the contradictions between fundamentalism and new ideas operate. This very contradiction may at any moment change or even demolish the balance at the producer-consumer system. Collapse of civilized norms of competitiveness leads to an open confrontation.
Read moreFrom the report at the International Conference Central Asia as Transcontinental Transportation Bridge: Potential and Prospects of Development
(Tashkent, November 19, 2007)
Transport communication, level of its quality and diversification are one of the key indicators of the development of economy of the country, its involvement into regional and global economical relations. Wide range of auto- and railways, pipelines and electricity lines allows binding economically different regions of country forming the basis of balanced functioning. It also provides opportunities for the country to rise own integration potential in the frames of interstate cooperation and international economic organizations.
Therefore from this point of view, issues of modernization and development of transportation communications are very actual for the countries of Central Asia. Their future economic and geopolitical importance and the importance of the region in the whole will depend on the resolution of the abovementioned issues.
International community of transport workers is highly interested but discusses differently issues of effectiveness functioning of transport systems on corresponding types (railway, air, auto and pipeline) and also on internal and interstate strategies of development of transport systems. These issues are of a special acuteness when it comes to transcontinental transport corridors and trunk lines. In this case everybody start talking tensively and with political implication about own national-state interests, considering rational to build new transport-economic systems based on diversification version.
Paradigm of diversification makes sound if perspective of international and interstate cooperation is planned on the basis of mutually exclusive interests and therefore conflicts in the future.
This paradigm can be transformed into more acceptable if to follow the way of interstate, interregional and transcontinental integration in the transport sphere of international economy, choosing more cost-effective variants in joint investments and regimes of minimal expenses.
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